iShares IVV ETF: S&P 500 Dashboard For December

This monthly dashboard series reports sector metrics in the S&P 500 Index (SP500). It is also a top-down analysis of all exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) tracking this index. Among them, the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) is the second most popular behind the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) regarding assets under management and average daily volume. It is also cheaper in management fee, with a 0.03% expense ratio vs. 0.09% for SPY.

Shortcut

The next two paragraphs in italic describe the dashboard methodology. They are necessary for new readers to understand the metrics. If you are used to this series or if you are short of time, you can skip them and go to the charts.

Base Metrics

I calculate the median value of five fundamental ratios in every sector: Earnings Yield (“EY”), Sales Yield (“SY”), Free Cash Flow Yield (“FY”), Return on Equity (“ROE”), Gross Margin (“GM”). All are calculated on trailing 12 months. For all these ratios, higher is better and negative is bad. EY, SY and FY are medians of the inverse of Price/Earnings, Price/Sales and Price/Free Cash Flow. They are better for statistical studies than price-to-something ratios, which are unusable when the “something” is close to zero or negative (for example, companies with negative earnings). I also calculate two momentum metrics for each group: the median monthly return (RetM) and the median annual return (RetY).

I prefer medians rather than averages because a median splits a set in a good half and a bad half. Capital-weighted averages are skewed by extreme values and the largest companies. As a consequence, these metrics are designed for stock-picking rather than index investing.

Value and Quality Scores

Historical baselines are calculated as the averages on a look-back period of 11 years for all metrics. They are noted respectively EYh, SYh, FYh, ROEh, GMh. For example, the value of EYh for technology in the table below is the 11-year average of the median Earnings Yield of S&P 500 tech companies.

The Value Score “VS” is the average difference in % between the three valuation ratios (EY, SY, FY) and their baselines (EYh, SYh, FYh). The same way, the Quality Score “QS” is the average difference between the two quality ratios (ROE, GM) and their baselines (ROEh, GMh).

VS may be interpreted as the percentage of undervaluation or overvaluation relative to the baseline (positive is good, negative is bad). This interpretation must be taken with caution: the baseline is an arbitrary reference, not a supposed fair value. The formula assumes that the three valuation metrics are of equal importance, except in energy and utilities where the Free Cash Flow Yield is ignored to avoid some inconsistencies. VS and QS are capped between -100 and +100 when the calculation goes beyond these values.

Current data

The next table shows the metrics and scores as of last week’s closing. Columns stand for all the data defined above.

Click to enlarge

* capped for convenience

Score charts

The next chart plots the Value and Quality Scores by sectors (higher is better).

Score variation since last month:

The next chart plots momentum data.

Interpretation

A hypothetical S&P 500 “median” company is overvalued by about 16% relative to average valuation metrics since 2011. The quality score is about 8 points above the baseline. We can translate median yields in their inverse ratios:

Price/Earnings: 24 – Price/Sales: 2.7 – Price/Free Cash Flow: 43.7

Energy has been the best-ranked sector regarding value, quality and momentum for a long time. Real estate also has excellent value and quality scores. The ratios used to calculate scores are not the most relevant for real estate and finance in absolute value, but looking at their evolution in time makes sense (it is what the scores do). Financials, healthcare, communication and utilities are overvalued by less than 15% relative to 11-year averages. It may be justified for financials and healthcare by good quality scores. Other sectors are overvalued by 20% to 32% relative to their historical baselines. Good quality scores partially offset overvaluation in technology and materials. The most overpriced sector is industrials

The S&P 500 is down -10.4% in 12 months, the momentum measured in median return is -2.5% (reported in the table above) and the equal-weight average is -2.9% (measured on RSP). It means that S&P 500 performance in 2022 has been significantly skewed to the downside by mega-cap companies. The S&P mid-cap 400 index beats the S&P 500 (-5.2% YTD for MDY), but the small cap index Russell 2000 is lagging (-15% for IWM). Performance has been quite homogeneous in the large and mid-cap segments. Mega-cap and small cap stocks have suffered the most.

We use the table above to calculate value and quality scores. It may also be used in a stock-picking process to check how companies stand among their peers. For example, the EY column tells that a large consumer staples company with an Earnings Yield above 0.0369 (or price/earnings below 27.10) is in the better half of the sector regarding this metric. A Dashboard List is sent every month to Quantitative Risk & Value subscribers with the most profitable companies standing in the better half among their peers regarding the three valuation metrics at the same time.