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Here are the weekly charts for the gold, commodities and the dollar ETFs.
The gold ETF tracks the spot price of gold and is said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.
SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH
The gold ETF ($133.53 on July 12) is up 10.1% year to date and is 10.2% above its Aug. 15 low of $111.06. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $129.00 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $119.35. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 80.45 last week, up from 78.78 on July 5.
Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to its quarterly and semiannual value levels at $129.11 and $128.85, respectively. My monthly pivot is $133.40.
The commodity ETF is heavily weighted to energy by about 60%.
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)
Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH
The commodities ETF ($16.14 on July 12) is up 15.1% year to date and up 19.6% since its Dec. 26 low of $13.50. This ETF is also in correction territory, down 14.2% below its Oct. 3 high of $18.81. The weekly chart is positive with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $15.70 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $15.50. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 43.03 last week, up from 37.53 on July 5.
Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to its 200-week simple moving average at $15.50 and reduce holdings on strength to its quarterly risky level at $18.23.
The weekly chart for Nymex crude oil ($60.21 on July 12) has a positive weekly chart with oil above its five-week modified moving average at $57.24 with its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $52.95, as a level at which to buy on weakness. The 12x3x3 weekly stochastic reading rose to 41.29 last week, up from 36.52 on July 5.
The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the Dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
Invesco DB USD Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)
Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH
The dollar ETF ($26.19 on July 12) is up 2.9% year to date and up 13.3% since trading as low as $23.12 in early-2018. The weekly chart is neutral with the ETF just above its five-week modified average at $26.15 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $25.11. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading fell to 45.95 last week, down from 46.79 on July 5. A close this week below $26.15 downgrades the weekly chart to negative.
Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to its annual value level at $25.47 and to its 200-week SMA at $25.11. Reduce holdings on strength to its five-year high of $26.83 set during the week of Jan. 6, 2017.
How to use my value levels and risky levels:
Value levels and risky levels are based upon the last nine weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual closes. The first set of levels was based upon the closes on Dec. 31. The original annual level remains in play. The weekly level changes each week. The monthly level was changed at the end of each month, the latest on June 28. The quarterly level was changed at the end of June. My theory is that nine years of volatility between closes are enough to assume that all possible bullish or bearish events for the stock are factored in. To capture share price volatility, investors should buy on weakness to a value level and reduce holdings on strength to a risky level. A pivot is a value level or risky level that was violated within its time horizon. Pivots act as magnets that have a high probability of being tested again before its time horizon expires.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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