The Gold ETF Continues To Set New Highs As Commodities Rebound And The Dollar Slumps

Here are the daily charts for the gold, commodities and the dollar ETFs.

The Gold Trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and is said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Gold ETF ($131.98 on June 21) is up 8.8% year to date and is 18.8% above its Aug. 15 low of $111.06. GLD is well above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $122.81 and $119.97, respectively. The weekly chart remains positive with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $125.20 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $118.97. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 65.52 last week, up from 53.66 on June 14.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to the 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages at $119.97 and $118.97, respectively.

The Commodity ETF is heavily weighted to energy by about 60%.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)

Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Commodities ETF ($15.60 on June 21) is up 11.3% year to date and up 11.3% since its Dec. 26 low of $13.50, tracking the volatility in Nymex crude oil. This ETF is also in correction territory, down 17.1% below its Oct. 3 high of $18.81. GSG is below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $15.87 and $16.03 respectively. The weekly chart is neutral with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $15.57 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $15.52. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading fell to 31.29 last week down from 32.79 on June 14.

Investor Strategy: Reduce holdings on strength to its 200-day simple moving average at $16.03.

The weekly chart for Nymex crude oil ($57.43 on June 21) has a neutral weekly chart with oil just above its five-week modified moving average at $57.24 with its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $52.75, as a level at which to buy on weakness. The 12x3x3 weekly stochastic reading fell to 31.11 last week, down from 34.02 on June 14.

The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the dollar vs. euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)

Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Dollar ETF ($25.95 on June 21) is up 2% year to date and up 12.2% since trading as low as $23.12 in early-2018. UUP is between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $26.20 and $25.77, respectively. The weekly chart is negative with the ETF below its five-week modified average at $26.14 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $25.09. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading fell to 66.84 last week, down from 77.37 down on June 14.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to its annual value level at $25.47 and reduce holdings on strength to its semiannual and monthly risky levels at $26.39 and $26.53, respectively.

How to use my value levels and risky levels:

Value levels and risky levels are based upon the last nine weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual closes. The first set of levels was based upon the closes on Dec. 31. The original semiannual and annual levels remain in play. The weekly level changes each week; the monthly level was changed at the end of January, February, March, April and May. The quarterly level was changed at the end of March. My theory is that nine years of volatility between closes are enough to assume that all possible bullish or bearish events for the stock are factored in. To capture share price volatility, investors should buy on weakness to a value level and reduce holdings on strength to a risky level. A pivot is a value level or risky level that was violated within its time horizon. Pivots act as magnets that have a high probability of being tested again before their time horizon expires.

The close on June 28 is the second most important for 2019. This close is an input to my proprietary analytics and will generate new weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual levels.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.