Market Signaling a Curb in Inflation Fears, Tech Companies are “Right Sizing”, The Supply/Demand “Bullwhip”

The U.S. Dollar is surging to new 20-year highs. Market measures of long-term inflation expectations continue to fall, driven in part by falling energy and agriculture prices. Gas prices are driven by the price of oil and refining spreads, both have recently fallen. As the economy slows, the pace of hiring is expected to slow as well. Layoffs have already begun at technology companies. Don’t expect any relief from the Federal Reserve unless earnings begin to fall. Without cheap Russian gas, the German economy’s dominance in Europe is in question. Understanding the ‘Bullwhip Effect.’

1. Good news for U.S. consumers, and bad news for U.S. manufacturers:

2. Markets have shaken off fears of elevated long inflation over the long-term:

3. The Agricultural Subindex is back to pre-Ukraine War levels:

4. Consumers may finally get some relief at the pump:

5. Slowing payroll growth is normal at a 3.6% unemployment rate, but to enter a true recession employment will need to decline:

6. Without access to cheap external funding many tech companies will have to right size their workforce:

7. The Federal Reserve reacts to economic fundaments, not changes in earnings multiples:

8. Germany’s high trade balance, which created problems for other European countries, is now completely gone:

9. Sudden changes in demand reverberate throughout the supply chain as each participant has trouble correctly forecasting future supply and demand needs: