(Bloomberg) — In the rolling hills of the Welsh countryside, 73-year-old retired civil engineer Alan Marr fears the U.K. is heading for the “lunacy” of a no-deal divorce from the European Union.
His vote for the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats in the Brecon and Radnorshire special election Thursday helped the party score a significant victory over Boris Johnson’s Conservatives, reducing the prime minister’s parliamentary majority to one and making his task of delivering Brexit even harder.
“How can we not have a trade deal with such a big bloc?” said Marr, whose wife is Dutch and who brings home honey, olive oil and wine from vacations in Portugal and Spain. He also used to work on EU-supported infrastructure projects in Wales. “I feel very close to Europe, and don’t want to break away.”
Deep in sheep-farming country, the Liberal Democrats overturned an 8,000-vote Tory majority with the help of an electoral pact between pro-EU parties, who stood aside to improve the chances of a “Remain” victory. A repeat of such cooperation in Parliament or in a potential general election — though it’s much harder in a national poll — could make it more difficult for Johnson to keep his “do or die” pledge to deliver Brexit by Oct. 31.
“In the first week of Boris Johnson’s premiership, we’ve burst his bubble,” Jane Dodds, the winning Liberal Democrat politician, said against the dramatic backdrop of the Brecon Beacons range of hills, where the military conducts training. “I hope he listens and takes a no-deal Brexit off the table.”
Electoral Boost
Though that’s not likely to happen, the Brecon victory is another boost for the Liberal Democrats, who are currently polling at about 20% nationally after years in the doldrums following their coalition with the Tories until 2015. The constituency mirrored the 2016 Brexit referendum result, voting 52% to 48% to leave the EU.
But a no-deal divorce from the bloc is worrying farmers, whose sales of Welsh lamb to the continent could face steep export tariffs.
Gill Bradshaw, a 62-year-old Remain supporter who voted Lib Dem for the first time, welcomed their alliance with the Green Party and Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru party. The Liberal Democrats have indicated they’ll consider similar pro-EU alliances on a seat-by-seat basis at any future election.
“It was a good tactical move,” Bradshaw, who normally votes Labour, said as she sold china and glassware in the market hall. “Brexit is a backward step.”
Brexit Vote Split
By contrast, the Tories suffered from the emergence of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, whose candidate received 3,331 votes. Johnson’s Conservatives would have won had they taken those votes.
To be sure, local factors mean that what happened in Brecon doesn’t necessarily apply nationally. Turnout was lower than usual, while the vote only happened because incumbent Chris Davies was convicted of faking expense claims. Some residents said they voted against him entirely because of that.
Others cast their ballots for reasons beyond Brexit. James Adair, 51, a former post office worker who helps run a military memorabilia shop and wants to leave the EU, said he actually voted tactically for the Liberal Democrats to keep the Conservatives out.
“Johnson, I think, is dangerous,” said Adair, whose wife relies heavily on the state-run National Health Service and is worried it will be privatized by the government. “The more important thing for me at the moment is to put Brexit aside and get rid of the Tories.”
For Johnson, the immediate concern is how the Brecon result has cut his already wafer-thin Parliament majority, making him more vulnerable in a no-confidence vote. The main opposition Labour Party has hinted it could propose one as early as September.
There are plenty of potential Tory rebels. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, former Secretary of State for Justice David Gauke and former Business Secretary Greg Clark may be willing to tip the vote against their own party to prevent what they see as a calamitous no-deal Brexit.
If Johnson were to lose a confidence vote, he would have a short window to try to form an alternative grouping in Parliament that has a majority. Failing would trigger a general election.
Still, the prospect of a grand anti-Brexit alliance at a general election among opposition parties remains limited, not least because the Liberal Democrats are unwilling to do a deal with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.
‘Not Idiots’
“We’d be idiots to trust him, and we’re not idiots,” prominent Liberal Democrat Ed Davey said at the vote count, pointing to Corbyn’s ambiguous position on Brexit. “He’s under immense pressure to back Remain, and he hasn’t.”
That doesn’t mean the challenge facing Johnson isn’t significant, especially if he tries to get his own Brexit deal with Brussels — which currently looks unlikely given the impasse on both sides — through Parliament. The math is against him, which is why speculation the prime minister might seek a direct mandate from the public in an early general election, or even that he might suspend the legislature to get Brexit done, refuses to go away.
Yet the result in Wales suggests Johnson will face a stiff fight whichever route he chooses.
“We’re going to be open-heartedly working with others to achieve our ultimate goals,” the Liberal Democrats’ new leader, Jo Swinson, said in Brecon.
