Morgan Stanley (MS – Get Report) likely fared the worst on Wall Street as the largest U.S. banks suffered steep declines in trading and investment-banking revenue during the first quarter, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
Four big U.S. banks — Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase (JPM – Get Report) , Bank of America (BAC – Get Report) and Citigroup (C – Get Report) — probably saw an average decline in total capital-markets revenue of 11% from the first quarter of 2018, the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report.
The slump came even as the S&P 500 Index of large U.S. stocks surged by 13% during the first three months of 2019, the biggest quarterly gain in nearly a decade. And 10-year Treasury bonds rose, driven by a drop in yields as the Federal Reserve pledged to refrain from further interest-rate increases until signs emerge that the economy is strengthening or inflation is ticking up.
Stock-trading revenue suffered the most, about 18%, on “lower volumes and volatility,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. Revenue probably fell 8% in fixed-income, commodities and foreign exchange revenue probably, and by 7% in investment-banking businesses such as stock- and bond-underwriting and advice on mergers.
Another big factor for the Wall Street firms was reduced underwriting activity due to the government shutdown, according to the analysts. Stock-underwriting volumes were down by 30% from the prior year’s quarter.
Morgan Stanley’s total capital markets revenue probably fell the most, at 15%, followed by Bank of America with an 11% drop, and declines of 10% at JPMorgan and 8% at Citigroup.
Of course, Goldman Sachs is another big Wall Street firm, and Goldman Sachs analysts don’t cover their own bank.
Based on estimates from the Australian bank Macquarie, however, trading revenue at Goldman Sachs probably fell by 20%, and its investment-banking revenue was down by 23%.
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