Legault set to win Quebec election, to business community’s dismay

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The Quebec provincial election is taking place Monday and the five main party leaders vying to run the next government are François Legault of the nationalist, conservative Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), Dominique Anglade of the left-leaning Québec Liberal Party, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the sovereigntist, social-democratic Parti Québécois and Eric Duhaime of the right-leaning Conservative Party of Quebec. Here’s what you need to know:

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The frontrunners

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Legault’s CAQ is leading the polls with 39 per cent of the vote, according to poll aggregator 125Quebec.com. The Liberals are in second place at 16 per cent. Legault is expected to snag a second majority government in spite of a five-week campaign some experts call “catastrophic.”

Recently, Legault told a business audience that increasing the number of immigrants in Quebec would be suicidal for the province and for the French language, even though the Montreal business community believes immigrants are crucial to resolve the labour shortage. He also received flack for linking immigration to violence and extremism.

Legault had to apologize twice during the campaign to extinguish fires of his own making. But he also had to put out fires started by other members of his team. For example, he reprimanded immigration minister Jean Boulet for claiming the majority of immigrants who “go to Montreal, don’t work, and don’t speak French.”

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Despite all that, experts believe Legault is cashing in on the voter sympathy he built up during his management of the pandemic.

What Legault has promised

Immigration, health care, climate and the cost of living have dominated the election campaign, which began at the end of August.

The CAQ has promised to give $600 to Quebecers with an annual income of less than $50,000 by year-end, and lower the personal income tax rate by one per cent. The Liberals also plan to lower the personal income tax rate, but increase the tax rate for those earning $300,000 or more.

The CAQ plans to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 37.5 per cent below 1990 levels, reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The Liberals aim to reduce emissions by 45 per cent, and end fossil-fuel investments by Quebec’s pension-fund manager, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec.

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The CAQ plans to reduce annual immigration to 50,000 from 70,000, while the Liberals plan to maintain the status quo.

Notably, the CAQ seeks to tighten laws controlling the French language, especially for immigrants, who would receive all their government documents in French six months following their arrival. The Liberals plan to amend the language laws, eliminating the six-month rule for immigrants.

A sticking point for the business community

Legault, co-founder of holiday airline Transat A.T. Inc., was previously considered business friendly. But his views on immigration have created a gulf between him and the Montreal business community.

Michel Leblanc, president of the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal, said reducing the number of immigrants would only make it more difficult for Montreal to compete with Toronto for talented workers.

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“We need new bodies, new brains, new hands,” he said.

Karl Blackburn, head of the Conseil du Patronat du Québec, the province’s biggest business lobby group, agreed that the situation was grave. He likened the current labour shortage to “fishing in an empty lake.”

The business community is unlikely to get what it wants. 125Quebec.com gives Legault a 99-per-cent likelihood of a victory, gaining 92 seats, with the Liberals following well behind at 21.

• Email: mcoulton@postmedia.com | Twitter: marisacoulton