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Today, I show the weekly charts with their key technical levels.
The Fed followed last week’s $47 billion unwinding of its balance sheet with a $7 billion unwinding on Feb. 27.
The FOMC continued to tighten monetary policy using the unwinding of its balance sheet. As a result, yields on U.S. Treasuries are on the rise again. The 10-year yield rose from 2.627% on Feb. 20 to 2.711% on March 1 as the Fed tightens. The Fed balance sheet was marked at $3.974 trillion on Feb. 27, down from $2.981 trillion on Feb. 20. The balance sheet is down by $526 billion from $4.5 trillion where it was at the end of September 2017. In my opinion, the Fed wants to continue to unwind the balance sheet until later this year. I believe that they are aggressive now given the market strength.
Here’s Today’s Scorecard
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA)
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The Diamonds ETF is in bull market territory 20% above its 2018 low of $216.97 set on Dec. 26 and is 3.3% below its all-time intraday high of $269.28 set on Oct. 3. Remember that Dec. 6 was a “key reversal” as the close was above the Dec. 24 high.
The weekly chart for Diamonds is positive but overbought, with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $252.61. DIA is well above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $210.01. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 82.82 last week, up from 75.66 on Feb. 22, moving above the overbought threshold of 80.00. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level at $243.47 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and quarterly risky levels at $265.49 and $270.43, respectively. DIA is above my annual pivot at $257.94.
SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY)
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The Spiders ETF is in bull market territory 20% above its Dec. 26 low of $233.76 and is 4.6% below its all-time intraday high of $293.94 on Sept. 21. Remember that Dec. 26 was a “key reversal” as the close was above the Dec. 24 high.
The weekly chart for Spiders is positive but overbought, with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $271.81. SPY is above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $237.44 after this average held at $234.71 during the week of Dec. 28. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 82.34 last week, up from 75.35 on Feb. 22. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level at $266.14 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels at $281.13 and $285.86, respectively. My weekly and quarterly risky levels are $291.88 and $292.16, respectively.
Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ)
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The QQQ ETF is in bull market territory 21.6% above its 2018 low of $143.46 on Dec. 24. QQQ is also 7% below its all-time intraday high of $187.53 set on Oct. 1.
The weekly chart for QQQ is positive but overbought, with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $168.61. QQQ is above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $136.34. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 84.18 last week, up from 77.41 on Feb. 22. Buy weakness to my annual and semiannual value levels at $169.27 and $167.53, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my weekly and quarterly risky levels at $181.71 and $192.04, respectively. My weekly pivot for March is $174.32.
iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSEARCA:IYT)
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
IYT is in bull market territory 21.6% above its 2018 low of $155.24 set on Dec. 24. The ETF is 9.9% below its all-time intraday high of $209.43 on Sept. 14.
The weekly chart for IYT remains positive, with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $184.04. The ETF is above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $164.90. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 68.88 last week, up from 61.40 on Feb. 22. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level at $159.63 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $193.67, $195.81 and $196.35, respectively.
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM)
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
IWM is in bull market territory 25.8% above its 2018 low of $125.81 set on Dec. 26. The ETF is 8.7% below its all-time intraday high of $173.39 set on Aug. 31.
The weekly chart for IWM is positive but overbought, with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $151.73. The ETF is above its 200-week SMA or “reversion to the mean” at $135.76. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 84.88 last week, up from 78.02 on Feb. 22. Buy weakness to my semiannual and monthly value levels at $149.77 and $148.81, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my quarterly risky level at $160.93. My annual pivot is $157.49.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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