FSTA: Consumer Staples Dashboard For March (NYSEARCA:FSTA)

This monthly article series shows a dashboard with aggregate industry metrics in consumer staples. It is also a review of sector ETFs like the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (NYSEARCA:FSTA), whose largest holdings are used to calculate these metrics.

Shortcut

The next two paragraphs in italic describe the dashboard methodology. They are necessary for new readers to understand the metrics. If you are used to this series or if you are short of time, you can skip them and go to the charts.

Base Metrics

I calculate the median value of five fundamental ratios for each industry: Earnings Yield (“EY”), Sales Yield (“SY”), Free Cash Flow Yield (“FY”), Return on Equity (“ROE”), Gross Margin (“GM”). The reference universe includes large companies in the U.S. stock market. The five base metrics are calculated on trailing 12 months. For all of them, higher is better. EY, SY and FY are medians of the inverse of Price/Earnings, Price/Sales and Price/Free Cash Flow. They are better for statistical studies than price-to-something ratios, which are unusable or non available when the “something” is close to zero or negative (for example, companies with negative earnings). I also look at two momentum metrics for each group: the median monthly return (RetM) and the median annual return (RetY).

I prefer medians to averages because a median splits a set in a good half and a bad half. A capital-weighted average is skewed by extreme values and the largest companies. My metrics are designed for stock-picking rather than index investing.

Value and Quality Scores

I calculate historical baselines for all metrics. They are noted respectively EYh, SYh, FYh, ROEh, GMh, and they are calculated as the averages on a look-back period of 11 years. For example, the value of EYh for food in the table below is the 11-year average of the median Earnings Yield in food companies.

The Value Score (“VS”) is defined as the average difference in % between the three valuation ratios (EY, SY, FY) and their baselines (EYh, SYh, FYh). The same way, the Quality Score (“QS”) is the average difference between the two quality ratios (ROE, GM) and their baselines (ROEh, GMh).

The scores are in percentage points. VS may be interpreted as the percentage of undervaluation or overvaluation relative to the baseline (positive is good, negative is bad). This interpretation must be taken with caution: the baseline is an arbitrary reference, not a supposed fair value. The formula assumes that the three valuation metrics are of equal importance.

Current data

The next table shows the metrics and scores as of last week’s closing. Columns stand for all the data named and defined above.

*Capped to 100 for convenience

Value And Quality chart

The next chart plots the Value and Quality Scores by industry (higher is better).

Evolution since last month

Quality has improved in staple/food retail and deteriorated in beverage. The most notable value score move is a deterioration in the food industry.

Momentum

The next chart plots momentum data.

Interpretation

The tobacco industry is the most attractive one relative to 11-year averages in value and quality metrics. A note of caution about statistics and sample size: there are only five tobacco companies in my reference universe. Personal care and household products are slightly overvalued (by about 13% and 7%, respectively), but this may be justified by good quality scores. The beverage industry is also slightly overvalued, but in this case quality is below the baseline. Food and staple/food retail are overvalued by more than 20% and quality doesn’t justify it.

Fast facts on FSTA

The Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) has been following the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Staples 25/50 Index since 10/21/2013. It has a total expense ratio of 0.08%, which is a bit cheaper than XLP (0.12%). There is no material difference in performance between FSTA and XLP since inception (see next table). Risk measured in drawdown and volatility is also similar.

As of writing, the fund has 105 holdings. The next table shows the top 10 names with fundamental ratios and dividend yields. Their aggregate weight is 62.5%.

Ratios: Portfolio123

In summary, FSTA is a good instrument with cheap fees for investors seeking a capital-weighted exposure in consumer staples. It holds considerably more stocks than XLP (currently 105 vs. 33), but past performance since inception is almost identical. For long-term investors, XLP and FSTA are equivalents, but liquidity makes XLP a better choice for tactical allocation and trading. The fund is significantly exposed to risks related to the top five holdings, which weigh 7% to 14% individually and 45% in aggregate. Investors who are concerned by this concentration may prefer the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF (RHS).

Dashboard List

I use the first table to calculate value and quality scores. It may also be used in a stock-picking process to check how companies stand among their peers. For example, the EY column tells us that a food company with an earnings yield above 0.0398 (or price/earnings below 25.13) is in the better half of the industry regarding this metric. A Dashboard List is sent every month to Quantitative Risk & Value subscribers with the most profitable companies standing in the better half among their peers regarding the three valuation metrics at the same time. The list below was sent to subscribers several weeks ago based on data available at this time.

It is a rotating list with a statistical bias toward excess returns on the long-term, not the result of an analysis of each stock.